3 Straight Super Bowl Winners!
Saturday February 4, 2012
50 DIME
College Winner # 2 In A Row
Missouri - Push
Net Profit/Loss: +/- 0 Dimes
Sunday February 6, 2011
100 Dime
Super Sunday
Winner #3 In a Row
Packers Moneyline - WINNER!
3-0 in Super Sunday's since joining this site!
75 Dime Super Sunday Winner #1 - Cardinals over Steelers
75 Dime Super Sunday Winner #2 - Saints outright over Colts
Here's what I told my clients about the Packers:
You might wonder why I'm electing to take the Packers on the money line instead of the point spread... insurance. It is absolutely worth it to spend a little extra money up front to save yourself in case of a fluke play that throws these numbers out of whack. I feel VERY strong that the Green Bay Packers will find a way to win this game, whether it be a last second field goal or a last minute defensive stand... Green Bay will win this game. I also believe they'll cover the 2 1/2 points Vegas is asking them to cover, but for purposes of my release, I'm asking you to play the money line. I don't believe Pittsburgh is the right side here because I don't believe they will win the game, and 2 1/2 or 3 points just isn't enough for me.
Yes, I'm fully aware of the Steelers history in this game. I realize Ben Roethlisberger is 2-0 in Super Bowl starts and several of these players have been to at least one of the two Pittsburgh Super Bowls over the last five year (some played in both games), but I'm flat out tired of hearing what the Steelers did in past years. Just because the Yankees won the World Series four times in the late 90s didn't mean they were guaranteed to win the next year, did it? The Yankees won again two years ago, were the heavy favorites coming into the 2010 season, but couldn't get past the Texas Rangers in the ALCS. Texas had virtually no playoff experience while the Yankees were steeped in tradition, but Texas completely dominated the series because they were the better team that year.
In my opinion, the same thing applies in this game. I can't tell you how many times this week I've heard about how Pittsburgh's experience in this game will be the difference and how Ben Roethlisberger is much more prepared than Aaron Rodgers to have a good game because he's been here twice and won both times. With no disrespect to Big Ben (because I believe he's really good), but his defense and the refs won him that first Super Bowl... and if it weren't for one of the best catches I've seen in a Super Bowl from Santonio Holmes, the Cardinals would have beaten them for that one. But this is a different year, a different season, a different team, and a different opponent. Each game has its own set of problems, and this game will be nothing like the last two Super Bowls Pittsburgh played in.
What we need to do is focus on the here and now. The 2010 Steelers and the 2010 Packers... not the 2006 Steelers and 2010 Packers. I'll admit, on paper this is one of the most closely contested Super Bowls in recent history. Although I think Green Bay is the right side here, it wouldn't shock me if the Steelers won yet another Super Bowl. But it's going to take some serious breaks for the former champs to get it done today. They're going to have to hope the Packers have an inordinate amount of turnovers and penalties, because that's the only way I believe they win here.
Aside from all the offensive stats and defensive stats I could give you to defend my selection, I wanted to talk about one of the biggest headlines of the week in Pittsburgh... the injury to center Maurkice Pouncey. Steelers fans can downplay this injury all they want, the fact is, it sucks for Pittsburgh. This is a major loss to an already banged up offensive line. The only lineman who has played every game this year is veteran Flozell Adams who came over to Pittsburgh from Dallas via free agency. No Max Starks, no Willie Colon, no Maurkice Pouncey... granted they have figured out a way to survive without Colon and Starks all season, but losing your center really hurts. Doug Legursky is not the answer, but he's going to have to play well in order for the Steelers to have a chance.
What this does to the Steelers is force them to have to double team Packers NT B.J. Raji, and while he's being doubled it's going to open things up for someone like Clay Matthews or Cullen Jenkins or even CB Charles Woodson to come on the blitz. And the reason the Packers don't have a problem blitzing is because they have one of the best secondaries in the league. Green Bay beat the Eagles, Falcons and Bears because their defensive secondary made play after play after play. When you have a secondary that can give you man-coverage, that allows you to do so many things up front. Pittsburgh doesn't have that advantage because their pass defense is less-than-stellar and was torched in the second half two weeks ago by the Jets.
And speaking of New York's second-half comeback in the AFC Championship game... do you remember what the Steelers offense did in the final 30 minutes of that game without Maurkice Pouncey? They produced less than 100 yards of offense and gave up a safety in the process. The Jets had a few issues in the first half or they would have won that game. The Jets turned the ball over twice in the first half which led to a short field on one touchdown drive, and another touchdown was scored when Mark Sanchez was sacked, a fumble was called on the field, and the fumble was returned for a touchdown.
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense beat Atlanta by using a quick passing game. He's so accurate he won't worry about Pittsburgh's quick linebackers. Pinpoint, accurate passing will beat any defense, especially when the QB can get rid of the ball as quickly as Rodgers does. And let's also not forget Rodgers isn't afraid to run the football, scoring four rushing touchdowns this year. You can be he won't hold back, considering this is the last game of the season. There were a few games where Rodgers came back from a concussion and played a little tentative... not today. He'll give the fans a show from the first possession on.
I'm not going to bore you with stats or ATS trends or any other worthless numbers... I'm just going to tell you the Packers are the right side of this game because I believe they're better and so many people out there think Pittsburgh is the right side. Play the Packers on the money line as your top play of the day.
40-27 Lifetime with 100 Dimers in all Sports
18-7 Run in the NFL
2011-2012 Winners
January 22 - Teaser Ravens and Giants
January 15 - Teaser Ravens and the Over
November 13 - 49ers (-3') 27, Giants 20
November 6 - Broncos (+7) 38, Raiders 24
October 30 - Lions (-2') 45, Broncos 10
October 23 - Seahawks (+3') 3, Browns 6
October 16 - Bills (+3') 24, NY Giants 27
October 2 - NY Giants Moneyline over Cardinals
September 25 - Panthers (-3) 16, over Jaguars 10
2010-11 Winners
February 6 - Packers Moneyline over Steelers
December 13 - Giants (-4') 21, Vikings 3
December 5 - Falcons (-3) 28, Bucs 24
November 28 - Bucs (+7') 10, Ravens 17
November 21 - Packers (-3) 31, Vikings 3
November 14 - Bucs (-7) 31, Panthers 16
November 7 - Saints (-6') 34, Panthers 3
2009-10 Winners
#1 - Vikings-Saints Over in NFC Title Game
#2 - Giants over Bears on 10/3
#3 - Bucs over Cardinals on 10/31
75 DIME
SUPER BOWL
WINNER #2 IN A ROW
Saints UPSET the Colts
Winner # 1 - Arizona covers against Pittsburgh
Here's what I told my clients two years ago...
In a similar fashion to last year, I'm more comfortable backing an explosive offense GETTING points rather than a supposed good defense giving points. Granted, last year's version of the Pittsburgh Steelers wasn't quite the offensive juggernaut the Colts were this year, but it's really not as wide of a margin as you might think. The Steelers of 2008 ran the ball much better than the Colts of 2009, but the Colts obviously throw it better than the Steelers did a year ago. Either way, I just don't feel comfortable backing a team by at least five points who could easily allow, at worst, a backdoor cover to a team that can score from anywhere on the field.
I first want to look at the Colts and why I believe they are susceptible to not only failing to cover the five points, but also losing this game SU. If anyone tells you to forget the regular season and ONLY look at the playoffs, you need to kick them in the teeth and tell them to get as far away from you as possible. The Super Bowl is the culmination of the ENTIRE body of work, from early September through the beginning of February, and we must all realize certain teams will slip up from time to time during that lengthy process... but we can never dismiss anything that happens along the way.
Before we look at each team individually, I want to first compare common opponents (including the playoffs). Keep in mind, I'm not saying this is a great barometer when trying to handicap a game, but it does give you a sense of how these teams have fared against the same type of competition. Early in the season, the Colts went to Miami and had to come back on four separate occasions to pull off a 27-23. In my opinion, Miami laid out the blueprint as one of the better ways to beat the Colts (though they never finished their business). Miami possessed the ball for nearly 46 of 60 minutes, keeping Peyton Manning and company on the sidelines in hopes of getting him a little rusty and out of rhythm. It didn't work, but it did allow Miami to not get blown out and have a legit shot to win in the end. New Orleans also visited Miami this season, and nearly suffered a worse fate than Indy. They fell behind 24-10 at halftime and actually trailed 31-10 at one point in the third quarter, but used a 22-0 spurt in the 4th quarter to secure a 46-34 win... once again proving there is no deficit too large for this offense to overcome.
Indy and New Orleans both pummeled Arizona, with the Colts beating them by 21 and the Saints beating them by 31. Neither game was very close.
The Colts and Saints both played the Jets (Indy got them twice), and both came out on top (I'm not going to count the regular season matchup). New Orleans did it with defense while Indy did it with a second-half surge after falling behind 17-6 late in the second quarter.
Both played Buffalo, but to Indy's credit it was the second team that got abused. The Saints completely destroyed the Bills as I believe Indy would have done had they played their starters.
However, the one game I'd like to pay the most attention to is the matchup with New England. Both Indy and New Orleans got the Patriots in a primetime game (Sunday and Monday night) and both played at home. Now, tell me who you were more impressed with... New Orleans whipping the Patriots by 21 (after calling the dogs off in the 4th) or the Colts who needed a bone-head decision from Bill Belichick to secure a one-point win? Honestly, I don't really care if both teams won or both teams lost, but the Pats were a playoff team and likely the best team to use for our comparison. Tom Brady torched the Indy secondary to the tune of 375 yards and 3 touchdowns. Brady threw for 237 yard, no TDs and two INTs vs. the Saints. Kevin Faulk rushed for a game-high 79 yards vs. the Colts. Faulk was non-existent vs. the Saints, though Laurence Maroney did rush for 64. Clearly the Saints beat this very same Patriots team SOUNDLY... just two weeks after the Colts earned their miracle win.
I don't bring these games up to necessarily compare stats or who fell behind by a larger margin... I bring them up for those people who have been telling me that the Saints aren't even in the same league with the Colts. For those people who tell me that Peyton Manning is clearly, head-and-shoulders ahead of Drew Brees. For those who keep reminding me that the Saints struggled to beat the Vikings at home two weeks ago. But as you can see, these two teams have played a lot of the same teams this year... and the results are eerily similar. So tell me, are the Colts really SUPERIOR in this matchup? If you look at only common opponents, I think it's safe to say not only are the Saints every bit as "classy" as the Colts, but they actually played better against the same set of teams.
Now let's quickly look back at the Colts 2009 regular season and see just how many times they were involved in close games with LESSER offenses than what New Orleans brings to the table. San Francisco came to Indy, led the game at halftime, and nearly pulled the upset. Colts held on for an 18-14 win. How about Jacksonville? I realize the Jags have perenially played the Colts tough, but a 2-point win and a 4-point win is hardly anything to get excited about if you're a Colts' backer today. Houston? The Texans actually had the lead in both meetings, but the Colts imposed their will in the second half of both games and won the first meeting by 3 points and the second game by 8. How about the Ravens? A late Joe Flacco interception (with the team already clearly in field goal range) cost the Ravens a potential win and the Colts held on for a 17-15 win. My point? As good as the Colts are, several teams were easily able to keep the game close with a chance to win in the end. I'm not asking the Saints to win, I'm just asking them to keep it close.
A smart handicapper who is siding with one team or the other in this game doesn't necessarily need to look at which team is better on paper, a smart handicapper puts his clients in the best position to win, and there are far more scenarios that favor the underdog Saints here today. Depending on the angle you want to take, you can make arguments as to why each team is better, but in the end it's all just an opinion. What I'm doing is looking at both teams over the entire season and giving you the team I think puts us in the best position to win money. The general public LOVES to bet the favorites and at last check, nearly 2 out of every three bets has been placed on the Colts. That's GREAT news for us.
What's even better is that despite the heavy money on the favorite, the line is actually coming down a bit. That's called reverse line movement and although it's not a sole reason to bet a team, it sure does help. We all saw the Saints struggle with the Vikings while the Colts decimated the Jets in the second half. As soon as Vegas opened this line, the public flooded in on the Colts. And considering this game is being played at a neutral site, the 5-point line would normally tell us (using the standard 3-point home field advantage) the Colts would be favored by 8 or 9 at home and would actually be favored by 2 or 3 IN New Orleans. Obviously that's ridiculous and I think Vegas might be begging us to take the Colts.
Folks, the bottom line is... we have two very talented teams who are more than capable of winning this game. The Colts have the advantage at the QB position, the Saints have the advantage at RB, both teams have good WRs and TEs, both have solid O-lines and D-lines, and both teams have solid linebackers and defensive backs. The Saints have the advantage in special teams with Garrett Hartley, Reggie Bush and Courtney Roby (don't forget about him). When all is said and done and the smoke clears, the Saints may not end up winning this game but I just can't imagine them losing by more than a field goal. 75-dime Super Bowl Winner #2 in a row on the New Orleans Saints PLUS the number.
Final Score: Saints (+5) 31, Colts 17