TUESDAY'S FREE PICKS

Just got in a couple of hours ago from completing a 5400-mile drive that took me through 18 states over the course of 19 days. So there is a reason I'm not doing a Video Report today.

In the absence of a Video, you can always find my free pick right here on my personal homepage. And all of your Tuesday promotions on this site's main page.


Free Pick # 1 - LA Dodgers (-150) vs. Atlanta

Rematch of last year's playoff series won by the Dodgers, who enter this game with some momentum following a three-game weekend sweep of the Giants in San Francisco.

I'm willing to take a shot with Josh Beckett, despite the fact that he got rocked for four runs and served up three homers in a season-low 3.2 innings in his last start versus Pittsburgh. But that game also marked his return to the mound following a 16-day absence because of a hip problem. Beckett says he feels fine and the hip wasn't the issue in his last outing, so I'm willing to give him the benefit of doubt tonight, although I wouldn't personally put my own money on him. The Dodgers, however, are my second favorite game on the board and that's why I'm using them as Tuesday's freebie.

This pick is also about going against Aaron Harang. Yes, he's got a 1.35 ERA in his last three starts. And yes, he's 4-0 with a 2.20 ERA in his last six starts. But this is Aaron Harang we're talking about and there's a reason he's been nothing more than a journeyman the past few years. I'm betting on the law of averages that his success comes to an end tonight in LA.


Free Pick # 2 - Kansas City (-1.5, +110) vs. Minnesota

If the Royals are going to be serious playoff contenders, they've got to take this series at home against Minnesota. And no better time to start than tonight with James Shields on the mound against Kyle Gibson, who made his last start back on July 18. He was sidelined with back issues and now he's back (no pun intended) on the road where his ERA is 4.97 on the season.

The Twins have lost seven of their last 10.

The Royals watched their five-game win streak get snapped with Sunday's home loss to Cleveland, but they enter this series having won 10 of their last 13 at Kaufman Stadium against Minnesota. 

 


 

9 of 12 Winning Football Seasons

(NFL & College Combined)

 


 
150-126-13 NFL Roll
past five years combined
 
+207.25 Dimes
 
(FYI - 99% of my plays are rated between 5 and 15 dimes)
 

 
8-3
with highest rated 30 Dime NFL releases
past five years combined
 

 
68-47-6 Run
with NFL 15 Dimers past four seasons

2013 Preseason

August 24 - Indy (First Half) vs. Cleveland - Win
August 25 - Houston vs. New Orleans - Loss

2013 Regular Season

September 5 - Denver/Baltimore Over - Win
September 8 - San Fran vs. Green Bay - Win
September 15 - Atlanta vs. St. Louis - Win
September 24 - Denver vs. Oakland - Push
(the line was -14 1/2 when I released it - with some -14's,
but was all over the board by gametime. I personally won,
but I'm counting this as a push for record-keeping purposes)
September 29 - Denver vs. Philadelphia - Win
September 30 - New Orleans vs. Miami - Win
October 3 - Cleveland vs. Buffalo - Win
October 4 - Green Bay vs. Detroit - Win
October 11 - Seattle vs. Tennessee - Loss
October 18 - Detroit vs. Cincinnati - Loss
October 27 - New Orleans vs. Buffalo - Win
November 7 - Washington vs. Minnesota - Loss
November 17 - New Orleans vs. San Fran - Push
(I had the Saints at -2 1/2 after buying insurance and personally won,
as did most of you, but I'm counting it as a push here for record-keeping purposes)
November 25 - San Francisco vs. Washington - Win
December 1 - San Francisco vs. St. Louis - Win
December 8 - New Orleans vs. Carolina - Win
December 15 - Carolina vs. NY Jets - Push
December 16 - Detroit vs. Baltimore - Loss
December 22 - Carolina vs. New Orleans - Win
December 23 - San Fran vs. Atlanta - Loss
December 29 - New Orleans vs. Tampa Bay - Win
January 5 - San Francisco vs. Green Bay - Win
January 12 - San Francisco vs. Carolina - Win
January 19 - Denver vs. New England - Win
February 2 - Denver vs. Seattle - Loss

(FYI - 99% of my plays are rated between 5 and 15 dimes)
 

 

Biggest NBA Plays Since 2009

 

15 Dime Releases

 

46-32-3 Record

 

Most Recent Release

Winner - Oklahoma City in series vs. LA Clippers



Payment Types

10 Dimer - Nats/Marlins Side Buy Now Buy Now $55
Washington's bullpen picked a fine time for a total collapse last night as the Nationals coughed up a 6-0 lead and lost 7-6 at Miami in a game where I had the Under (-120) as a 10 dime release.

Coming right back in that series for tonight's 10 Dimer, but this time it's a side selection.

Discount packages

1 YEAR OF SERVICE (365 Days)
Buy Now Buy Now $1,995
Every Play - Every Sport - For 365 Days

Nothing further to buy!

$199 Instant Rebate Available for Current Package Players

2-Part Payment Plan Available at Time of Purchase
100 DAYS OF SERVICE
Buy Now Buy Now $999

All of my Action for 100 Days

 

Nothing held back!

 

$149 Instant Rebate Available for Current Package Players

 

2-Part Payment Plan Available at Time of Purchase

60 DAYS OF SERVICE
Buy Now Buy Now $749
60 Days of Non-Stop Action

Every Play - No Exception

$100 Instant Rebate Available for Current Package Players
30 DAYS OF SERVICE
Buy Now Buy Now $479
Every Play I've Got for 30 Days

Nothing held back!

$50 Instant Rebate Available for Current Package Players
7 DAYS OF SERVICE
Buy Now Buy Now $189

7 Days of Action - Every Play - Every Sport

UPGRADE DISCOUNTS
 
If you're coming off a 7-day or longer package,
an Instant Rebate is Available on Qualifying Purchases
of 30 Days or Longer
 
 
INSTANT REBATE AMOUNTS
 
Upgrade to a 30-Day Package - Get a $50 Rebate
 
Upgrade to a 60-Day Package - Get a $100 Rebate
 
Upgrade to a 100-Day Package - Get a $149 Rebate
 
Upgrade to a Super Saver Package - Get a $159 Rebate
 
Upgrade to a 365-Day Package - Get a $199 Rebate
 

 

Two Payment Option Available
on any Package of 100 Days or More


1 DAY of ACTION
Buy Now Buy Now $99
7 DAYS of ACTION
Buy Now Buy Now $419
30 DAYS of ACTION
Buy Now Buy Now $999

 Every Play - Every Sport

From All 10 Pick Nation Experts


NOTE:

Steve Budin, Bryan Rosica &

Matt Rivers 

do NOT release plays everyday


Trace Adams' pay after you win pick is excluded

Al DeMarco's Rating System

Over the 25 years I've been doing this, one of the biggest misconceptions I've encountered from customers is their belief that winningpercentageactually matters in this business. Bottom line is that a straight-up winning percentage means absolutely nothing when your handicapper - such as myself - releases rated selections. Read further and you'll understand why.

 

I use the "dime" rating system, going in 5 dime increments, generally keeping those plays between 5 and 50 dimes. Yes, that's a wide range, but truth be told, I usually max out around 30 dimes, rarely venturing into the rarefied air toward 50 dimes unless I've built a substantial bankroll. Doing anything different would be irresponsible bankroll management on my part and a total disservice toward you, my clients.

 

I like to keep it simple from a money-management system so my customers can always know exactly how they should beallocatingtheir bankroll in proportion to the rating I assign to a selection.

 

Obviously, a 50 Dime play is five times stronger than a 10 Dime release and twice as strong as a 25 Dime pick.

 

And each day when you see my compiling or mentioning my NET profit figures, keep in mind I've computing them based on the following formula:

 

Net Profit = Wins - Losses- Vig

 

Of course let's not forget my golden rule of gambling: Never bet more than you can afford to lose. No rating system - including mine - is effective unless you pay attention to that rule. By heeding my advice you can never fall into a financial abyss from which there is no escape.

 

A question gamblers always pose is "How much should I be playing?" Obviously, there is no set, firm answer, but my advice would be to follow my money management system and base the size of your wagers on a percentage of your total bankroll.

 

Let me explain further...

 

Take your total bankroll - the amount you can afford to lose in an absolute worst case scenario on a single day. Let's say it's $400 on a college football Saturday. And on that Saturday I release a 50 Dime play and two 20 Dime picks.

 

Let's do some quick math...I've got atotalof 90 dimes of action on the table (one 50 dime play and two 20 dimers).  You've got amaximum one-day bankrollof $400. Simply divide the $400 by the 90 dimes and you've got a per dime wager of $4.44.

 

Now it's time for some simple multiplication. If a dime is worth $4.44, my 50 Dime rated release equals approximately a $222 wager on your part. And my two 20 Dime rates picks equal approximately $88.88 wagers each. Add everything back up and you've got your initial $400 bankroll all over again.

 

This obviously all applies to a single wagering day. It's up to you to figure out how to allocate your bankroll over the course of a week or month.

 

Now, back to how inconsequential winning percentages can be: Let's say I have a 50 Dime play and three 10 Dime releases on an NFL Sunday. If I win the 50 Dime play and go 0-3 with the 10 Dime releases, my overall record is a dismal 1-3 but my net profit is a healthy 17 dimes. Conversely, let's say I lose the 50 Dime play and go 3-0 with the 10 Dime releases. My overall record is an impressive 3-1, but my net profit is a negative -25 dimes.

 

Which would you prefer, the losing record and winning day, or the winning record or losing day?

 

Believe what you want, but I'm telling you the truth: Winning percentage means nothing in this business as the above illustration will prove time and time again. Of course, crafty salesmen masquerading as handicappers can spin gold using the second scenario, but I feel it's my job to educate you about what is the TRUTH in this business - whether you become my customer or not.

1 Day of Action $99
7 Days of Action $419
30 Days of Action $999

 Every Play - Every Sport

From All 10 Pick Nation Experts


NOTE:

Steve Budin, Bryan Rosica &

Matt Rivers 

do NOT release plays everyday


Trace Adams' pay after you win pick is excluded

Charity Play of the Week
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