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FRIDAY'S FREE PICK

I'm on a 541-492-22 roll the past 610 days with complimentary plays, going 10-1 since last Tuesday (all in the NBA), following last night's winner on the Spurs.

Tonight I'm backing Boston (-3) at Chicago.

It almost seems too easy, right? And that's why I'm worried.

As I wrote before backing the Celtics as a Top-Rated 15 Dimer in Game Five, these seven-game series are all about riding the ebbs and flows of one team or another. Right now the wave to ride is that of Boston as Rajon Rondo's loss has transformed the series following the Celtics' two wins in Chicago.

This is what I wrote in my analysis prior to Game Five:


Am I thrilled that the Celtics jumped out to a 30-18, first-quarter lead in Game Four, built the margin to 20 points, only to give it all up and watch the Bulls take a two-point advantage with 4:35 remaining in the third before turning on the jets and going on a 12-0 run to propel them to a 104-95 win on Sunday?

Absolutely not.

Was I happy the Celtics outscored Chicago by 18 in the first quarter of Game Three, only to be limited to 11 points in the second quarter and watch their half-time advantage sitting at a single bucket before they woke up after intermission to roll to the 104-87 win on Friday?

Absolutely not.


And then what happened in Game Five back in Boston? The Bulls jumped out to an early 12-4 lead and the Celtics missed their first eight three-pointers. The game was tied at 84-84 in the fourth quarter before Boston went on a 20-5 run to seal the deal. So the final score might have said 108-97, but it was far from easy.

The positives for the Celtics: Avery Bradley played lock-down defense on Jimmy Butler in addition to scoring 24 points. Isaiah Thomas matched Bradley's 24 despite shooting just 6-for-17 and going 1-for-10 with 3's. And Al Horford continued his strong play in the series with 21 points, nine assists and seven rebounds. 

The negatives? The Bulls outshot Boston 50 percent to 43.2 percent and Dwayne Wade was unstoppable with 26 points, 11 rebounds and eight assists. Fortunately Chicago committed 16 turnovers that led to 23 points.

Lucky for Boston Jimmy Butler wasn't 100 percent. He clearly was favoring a knee injury he suffered late in Game Four. He finished with only 14 points and took just two shots in the fourth quarter. Most telling was the fact he reached the foul line just once after getting to the charity stripe 23 times in Game Four. 

We all know the Bulls' chances evaporated once Rajon Rondo broke his thumb. Yet they've made their runs in the past three games. The Celtics should easily close out the series tonight. But after seeing what happened with Toronto at Milwaukee last night, I'm not willing to bet on it.

 


 

10 of 15 Winning Football Seasons

(NFL & College Combined)

 


 
212-166-13 NFL Roll
past five years combined
  
(FYI - 99% of my plays are rated between 5 and 15 dimes)
 

 
10-4
with highest rated 30 Dime NFL releases
past five years combined

Most Recent Release

1/18/15 - Seattle/New England Teaser - Winner
 

 
103-74-7 Run
with NFL 15 Dimers past six seasons


 

Biggest NBA Plays Since 2009

 

15 Dime Releases

 

97-71-3 Record

 


Payment Types

Top-Rated 15 Dime Winner # 40 of 68

Jazz - Clippers

97-71-3 with NBA 15 Dimers since 2009
Buy Now Buy Now $65
Followed Sunday's 15 Dime Winner on the Celtics with another on the Hawks on Monday. Unfortunately I could not make it three in a row as the Rockets came up short as the home chalk versus Oklahoma City on Tuesday. However, I've since strong with 15 Dime Winners on Boston on Wednesday and Toronto on Thursday. 

Coming right back with Top-Rated 15 Dime Winner # 40 of 68 on Utah-Los Angeles tonight. Following last night's winner with the Celtics I am 97-71-3 with these plays in the NBA since the 2009 season.

As for the comp plays, I'm on a 541-492-22 roll the past 610 days, going 10-1 since last Tuesday (all in the NBA), following last night's winner on the Spurs.

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Steve Budin, Mathew Parker, Jeff Benton, Matt Rivers,

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Al DeMarco's Rating System

Over the 25 years I've been doing this, one of the biggest misconceptions I've encountered from customers is their belief that winningpercentageactually matters in this business. Bottom line is that a straight-up winning percentage means absolutely nothing when your handicapper - such as myself - releases rated selections. Read further and you'll understand why.

 

I use the "dime" rating system, going in 5 dime increments, generally keeping those plays between 5 and 50 dimes. Yes, that's a wide range, but truth be told, I usually max out around 30 dimes, rarely venturing into the rarefied air toward 50 dimes unless I've built a substantial bankroll. Doing anything different would be irresponsible bankroll management on my part and a total disservice toward you, my clients.

 

I like to keep it simple from a money-management system so my customers can always know exactly how they should beallocatingtheir bankroll in proportion to the rating I assign to a selection.

 

Obviously, a 50 Dime play is five times stronger than a 10 Dime release and twice as strong as a 25 Dime pick.

 

And each day when you see my compiling or mentioning my NET profit figures, keep in mind I've computing them based on the following formula:

 

Net Profit = Wins - Losses- Vig

 

Of course let's not forget my golden rule of gambling: Never bet more than you can afford to lose. No rating system - including mine - is effective unless you pay attention to that rule. By heeding my advice you can never fall into a financial abyss from which there is no escape.

 

A question gamblers always pose is "How much should I be playing?" Obviously, there is no set, firm answer, but my advice would be to follow my money management system and base the size of your wagers on a percentage of your total bankroll.

 

Let me explain further...

 

Take your total bankroll - the amount you can afford to lose in an absolute worst case scenario on a single day. Let's say it's $400 on a college football Saturday. And on that Saturday I release a 50 Dime play and two 20 Dime picks.

 

Let's do some quick math...I've got atotalof 90 dimes of action on the table (one 50 dime play and two 20 dimers).  You've got amaximum one-day bankrollof $400. Simply divide the $400 by the 90 dimes and you've got a per dime wager of $4.44.

 

Now it's time for some simple multiplication. If a dime is worth $4.44, my 50 Dime rated release equals approximately a $222 wager on your part. And my two 20 Dime rates picks equal approximately $88.88 wagers each. Add everything back up and you've got your initial $400 bankroll all over again.

 

This obviously all applies to a single wagering day. It's up to you to figure out how to allocate your bankroll over the course of a week or month.

 

Now, back to how inconsequential winning percentages can be: Let's say I have a 50 Dime play and three 10 Dime releases on an NFL Sunday. If I win the 50 Dime play and go 0-3 with the 10 Dime releases, my overall record is a dismal 1-3 but my net profit is a healthy 17 dimes. Conversely, let's say I lose the 50 Dime play and go 3-0 with the 10 Dime releases. My overall record is an impressive 3-1, but my net profit is a negative -25 dimes.

 

Which would you prefer, the losing record and winning day, or the winning record or losing day?

 

Believe what you want, but I'm telling you the truth: Winning percentage means nothing in this business as the above illustration will prove time and time again. Of course, crafty salesmen masquerading as handicappers can spin gold using the second scenario, but I feel it's my job to educate you about what is the TRUTH in this business - whether you become my customer or not.

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NOTE:

(Any "Guarantee" applying to Guaranteed Plays and Resulting

Free Service is NOT included)


Steve Budin, Mathew Parker, Jeff Benton, Matt Rivers,

Dom Chambers (NHL) and Gabe DuPont (NHL) 

do NOT release plays everyday


Trace Adams' Pay After You Win Plays

(which are NEVER Best Bets) are not included


Upgrade From One Package To Another at Anytime

Instant Rebates Available Upon Upgrades!

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NBA PLAYOFFS Friday, April 28th (WAS, BOS, UTA 3-2)
7:35 PM 511 Washington
512 Atlanta
89
82
00:31
3rd Q
208½
-3-05
208½
-3
208½u15
-3-15
209
-3
208½
-3-05
209
-3
8:05 PM 509 Boston
510 Chicago
64
45
08:31
3rd Q
-3
203½
-3
203
-3
203u15
-3½
203
-3
203½
-3
203
10:35 PM 507 La Clippers
508 Utah
    193½
-5½-15
194
-5½
194
-5½
194
-5½
193½
-5½-15
194½
-5½
NBA PLAYOFFS Saturday, April 29th
11:59 PM 713 Memphis
714 San Antonio
     
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
11:59 PM 715 Milwaukee
716 Toronto
     
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
NBA PLAYOFFS Sunday, April 30th
11:59 PM 717 Chicago
718 Boston
     
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
11:59 PM 719 Atlanta
720 Washington
     
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
11:59 PM 721 Utah
722 La Clippers
     
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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