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SATURDAY'S FREE PICKS

I'm on a 432-383-11 roll (83-63-3 L/149) with complimentary plays following Friday's easy winner on Washington in the Pac-12 title game.

I'm under the weather - again - but will try to return with a Video on Sunday. As usual, when there is no video you can find my free picks in this spot.

Free Pick # 1 - NAVY (-2') vs. Temple 

Regular followers, you know the drill. If I go on or against Temple as a premium play it's pretty much a guaranteed loser. As a free pick, however, I practically never lose. Go figure. Anyway, today I say the Owls get sunk by the Middies in Annapolis and watch their impressive ATS rolls of 10 in a row overall and 12 of 14 as an underdog both come to an end.

I opened the college campaign by giving the Owls one last chance by backing them at home as a double-digit chalk against Army in September. 

Big mistake as my alma mater cost me money again. 

The Black Knights ran for 329 yards and pulled the 28-13 upset.

Now it's true the Owls are a much better team at season's end, but if you can't stop Army's triple-option attack in September with an entire summer to prepare, why should you be expected to stop a much better Navy attack three months later?

The Middies average 342 yards on the ground per game with quarterback Will Worth leading the way with 1,181 yards and 25 touchdowns. 

Temple arrives with the No. 3 total defense in the country, a until allowing only 237.4 yards a game, but just because you trail only Alabama and Michigan on paper doesn't mean you're nearly as good. Remember, those numbers were compiled against AAC foes, not SEC or Big Ten competition. Thus I discount them just like the fact that Temple is also 10th in the nation in scoring defense with a per game yield of 17.8 points.

Temple needs to control the clock to be successful. The Owls are fifth in the country with an average time of possession of 34 minutes and have a strong ground game of their own with Jahad Thomas and Ryquell Armstead, who have combined for 1,698 yards and 25 scores. But time-consuming drives is Navy's forte as well and at the end of the day the Midshipmen have the home field advantage and that means the most considering they're on a 24-2 SU roll at home.

Lay the points and make sure you buy down the hook if you're saddled with a -3 or -3 1/2 number.


Free Pick # 2 - Penn State (+3) vs. Wisconsin at Indianapolis

If - and it's a big IF - I knew running back Saquon Barkley (1,219 yards, 5.3 ypc, 17 TDs) was 100 percent healthy after leaving last Saturday's win over Michigan State with a lower leg injury of some type - Penn State would have been my Best Bet today.

Even without positive confirmation, the Lions remain my second favorite play because they still have the best player on the field in quarterback Trace McSorely, who has passed for 2,027 yards and 16 touchdowns versus two picks during the team's current eight-game win streak (7-0-1 ATS).

McSorely not only has a talented corps of wide receivers to choose from, but also the legs to allow him to escape a strong Wisconsin pass rush. That plus PSU's improved offensive line play of late (only eight sacks allowed the past six games) should prove to be the difference in this game.

The Badgers arrive with six straight wins and a defense that's No. 3 in the nation in points per game allowed at 13.7 and seventh in yards yielded at 292. They're also strong in third down situations as they limit foes to 27 percent conversions in addition to owning a conference-high 21 interceptions. 

Wisconsin is a limited team on offense as quarterbacks Alex Hornibrook and/or Bart Houston are not going to beat you through the air. The ground game has produced an average of 202 yards, but it's a misleading number. Versus ranked foes it drops to 109. In November it soared to 246, but consider the competition: Northwestern, Illinois, Purdue and Minnesota. Today Corey Clement (441 yards past four games) and company will face a Penn State defense that's allowed only 3.6 yards per carry in Big Ten action.

This one goes down to the wire so again make sure you buy up the half-point on the Lions if your price in anywhere between +2 1/2 and +4.

 


 

10 of 14 Winning Football Seasons

(NFL & College Combined)

 


 
203-163-13 NFL Roll
past five years combined
  
(FYI - 99% of my plays are rated between 5 and 15 dimes)
 

 
10-4
with highest rated 30 Dime NFL releases
past five years combined

Most Recent Release

1/18/15 - Seattle/New England Teaser - Winner
 

 
96-72-7 Run
with NFL 15 Dimers past six seasons


 

Biggest NBA Plays Since 2009

 

15 Dime Releases

 

80-58-3 Record

 


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Al DeMarco's Rating System

Over the 25 years I've been doing this, one of the biggest misconceptions I've encountered from customers is their belief that winningpercentageactually matters in this business. Bottom line is that a straight-up winning percentage means absolutely nothing when your handicapper - such as myself - releases rated selections. Read further and you'll understand why.

 

I use the "dime" rating system, going in 5 dime increments, generally keeping those plays between 5 and 50 dimes. Yes, that's a wide range, but truth be told, I usually max out around 30 dimes, rarely venturing into the rarefied air toward 50 dimes unless I've built a substantial bankroll. Doing anything different would be irresponsible bankroll management on my part and a total disservice toward you, my clients.

 

I like to keep it simple from a money-management system so my customers can always know exactly how they should beallocatingtheir bankroll in proportion to the rating I assign to a selection.

 

Obviously, a 50 Dime play is five times stronger than a 10 Dime release and twice as strong as a 25 Dime pick.

 

And each day when you see my compiling or mentioning my NET profit figures, keep in mind I've computing them based on the following formula:

 

Net Profit = Wins - Losses- Vig

 

Of course let's not forget my golden rule of gambling: Never bet more than you can afford to lose. No rating system - including mine - is effective unless you pay attention to that rule. By heeding my advice you can never fall into a financial abyss from which there is no escape.

 

A question gamblers always pose is "How much should I be playing?" Obviously, there is no set, firm answer, but my advice would be to follow my money management system and base the size of your wagers on a percentage of your total bankroll.

 

Let me explain further...

 

Take your total bankroll - the amount you can afford to lose in an absolute worst case scenario on a single day. Let's say it's $400 on a college football Saturday. And on that Saturday I release a 50 Dime play and two 20 Dime picks.

 

Let's do some quick math...I've got atotalof 90 dimes of action on the table (one 50 dime play and two 20 dimers).  You've got amaximum one-day bankrollof $400. Simply divide the $400 by the 90 dimes and you've got a per dime wager of $4.44.

 

Now it's time for some simple multiplication. If a dime is worth $4.44, my 50 Dime rated release equals approximately a $222 wager on your part. And my two 20 Dime rates picks equal approximately $88.88 wagers each. Add everything back up and you've got your initial $400 bankroll all over again.

 

This obviously all applies to a single wagering day. It's up to you to figure out how to allocate your bankroll over the course of a week or month.

 

Now, back to how inconsequential winning percentages can be: Let's say I have a 50 Dime play and three 10 Dime releases on an NFL Sunday. If I win the 50 Dime play and go 0-3 with the 10 Dime releases, my overall record is a dismal 1-3 but my net profit is a healthy 17 dimes. Conversely, let's say I lose the 50 Dime play and go 3-0 with the 10 Dime releases. My overall record is an impressive 3-1, but my net profit is a negative -25 dimes.

 

Which would you prefer, the losing record and winning day, or the winning record or losing day?

 

Believe what you want, but I'm telling you the truth: Winning percentage means nothing in this business as the above illustration will prove time and time again. Of course, crafty salesmen masquerading as handicappers can spin gold using the second scenario, but I feel it's my job to educate you about what is the TRUTH in this business - whether you become my customer or not.

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NOTE:

Steve Budin, Bryan Rosica &

Matt Rivers 

do NOT release plays everyday


Trace Adams' pay after you win pick is excluded

Help Charity Play of the Week Discount Picks
Featured Videos
Al DeMarco GM Video Brandon Lang Video Trace Adams Video
Time Teams Score Stat Open Hilton Grande Carib CRIS Coast
NFL - Week #13 (Bye: Clev, Tenn) - Sunday, December 04, 2016
1:00 PM 351 Denver
352 Jacksonville
    -3-29
38½o15
-3½
39
-3½-05
39u15
-3½-05
39½
-3-29
38½o15
-3½
39
1:00 PM 353 Kansas City
354 Atlanta
    50u15
-6-05
50
-5½
50
-5½
49
-5½
50u15
-6-05
50
-5½
1:00 PM 355 Houston
356 Green Bay
    44½u15
-6-15
44
-6
44½
-6
44½
-6½
44½u15
-6-15
45
-6½
1:00 PM 357 Philadelphia
358 Cincinnati
    41½u15
-2-15
41½
-2
41½
-1½
41½
-1½
41½u15
-2-15
42
-2
1:00 PM 359 Detroit
360 New Orleans
    53u15
-6-15
52½
-6
52
-6-15
52½
-6
53u15
-6-15
52½
-6
1:00 PM 361 San Francisco
362 Chicago
    -2
43
-2
43
-2
43
-2
43
-2
43
-1½
43
1:00 PM 363 Los Angeles
364 New England
    44
-13½
44½
-13½
44½
-13½-05
44
-13
44
-13½
44½
-13½
1:00 PM 365 Miami
366 Baltimore
    41
-3½-05
41
-3½
41
-3½-05
41
-3½-15
41
-3½-05
41
-3½
4:05 PM 367 Buffalo
368 Oakland
    48½
-3
48½
-3
48
-3-15
48½
-3
48½
-3
48½
-3
4:25 PM 369 Tampa Bay
370 San Diego
    48o15
-3½
48½
-4
48
-3½
48
-3½
48o15
-3½
48
-3½
4:25 PM 371 Washington
372 Arizona
    48½
-2½-15
48½
-2½
48½
-2½-05
48½
-2½
48½
-2½-15
49
-2½
4:25 PM 373 Ny Giants
374 Pittsburgh
    48o15
-6-15
48½
-6½
48½
-6-15
48½
-6-15
48o15
-6-15
48½
-6
8:30 PM 375 Carolina
376 Seattle
    44
-7½
44
-7½
44u15
-7½
44
-7-15
44
-7½
44
-7-20
NFL - NFL - Monday, December 05, 2016
8:30 PM 377 Indianapolis
378 Ny Jets
    -1½
48½
-1½
48½
-1½
48½
-1½
48½
-1½
48½
-2
49
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