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SUNDAY'S FREE PICK

Milwaukee (-125) at home vs. St. Louis

Let me think about the last time I made money betting on Jhoulys Chacin.

How about never.

Long career, but not a guy I like investing in. But I'm willing to take a shot with him as Sunday's free pick because the metrics seem right because there's no denying the fact that Milwaukee is 12-4 in his starts this season, including 5-1 at home.

Oh, and who was that lone loss against at Miller Park? You guessed it: St. Louis, in Chacin's home debut, which was followed by another less-than-stellar outing at Busch Stadium in his next start, leaving him with a 5.23 ERA against the Cards this season.

But that's the only negative number I can quote you about Chacin. His ERA on the year is 3.18. At home it's 2.31. And teams are batting just .231 against the 30-year-old right-hander on the season. 

St. Louis counters with Luke Weaver, who is 0-4 with a 4.46 ERA in his last seven starts. The 24-year-old right-hander has really struggled on the road this season with a 5.26 ERA in eight starts. In those outings he's allowed 45 hits and walked 19 batters in just 39.1 innings. 

Weaver lost at Milwaukee on May 28 after giving up four runs in four innings. That raised his ERA in six career starts versus the Brewers to 4.41.   

With Ryan Braun expected to make his series' debut (he's been out after receiving an injection for a chronic thumb condition on Wednesday), the Brewers' lineup gets a boost so why not back them and Chacin at this cheap chalk price.

 


 

11 of 16 Winning Football Seasons

(NFL & College Combined)

 


 
229-181-13 NFL Roll
past five years combined
  
(FYI - 99% of my plays are rated between 5 and 15 dimes)
 

 
11-6
with highest rated 30 Dime NFL releases
past 7 years combined
 

 
115-84-8 Run
with NFL 15 Dimers past seven seasons


 

Biggest NBA Plays Since 2009

 

15 Dime Releases

 

128-98-3 Record

 


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Steve Budin, Mathew Parker, Matt Rivers,

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Al DeMarco's Rating System

Over the 25 years I've been doing this, one of the biggest misconceptions I've encountered from customers is their belief that winningpercentageactually matters in this business. Bottom line is that a straight-up winning percentage means absolutely nothing when your handicapper - such as myself - releases rated selections. Read further and you'll understand why.

 

I use the "dime" rating system, going in 5 dime increments, generally keeping those plays between 5 and 50 dimes. Yes, that's a wide range, but truth be told, I usually max out around 30 dimes, rarely venturing into the rarefied air toward 50 dimes unless I've built a substantial bankroll. Doing anything different would be irresponsible bankroll management on my part and a total disservice toward you, my clients.

 

I like to keep it simple from a money-management system so my customers can always know exactly how they should beallocatingtheir bankroll in proportion to the rating I assign to a selection.

 

Obviously, a 50 Dime play is five times stronger than a 10 Dime release and twice as strong as a 25 Dime pick.

 

And each day when you see my compiling or mentioning my NET profit figures, keep in mind I've computing them based on the following formula:

 

Net Profit = Wins - Losses- Vig

 

Of course let's not forget my golden rule of gambling: Never bet more than you can afford to lose. No rating system - including mine - is effective unless you pay attention to that rule. By heeding my advice you can never fall into a financial abyss from which there is no escape.

 

A question gamblers always pose is "How much should I be playing?" Obviously, there is no set, firm answer, but my advice would be to follow my money management system and base the size of your wagers on a percentage of your total bankroll.

 

Let me explain further...

 

Take your total bankroll - the amount you can afford to lose in an absolute worst case scenario on a single day. Let's say it's $400 on a college football Saturday. And on that Saturday I release a 50 Dime play and two 20 Dime picks.

 

Let's do some quick math...I've got atotalof 90 dimes of action on the table (one 50 dime play and two 20 dimers).  You've got amaximum one-day bankrollof $400. Simply divide the $400 by the 90 dimes and you've got a per dime wager of $4.44.

 

Now it's time for some simple multiplication. If a dime is worth $4.44, my 50 Dime rated release equals approximately a $222 wager on your part. And my two 20 Dime rates picks equal approximately $88.88 wagers each. Add everything back up and you've got your initial $400 bankroll all over again.

 

This obviously all applies to a single wagering day. It's up to you to figure out how to allocate your bankroll over the course of a week or month.

 

Now, back to how inconsequential winning percentages can be: Let's say I have a 50 Dime play and three 10 Dime releases on an NFL Sunday. If I win the 50 Dime play and go 0-3 with the 10 Dime releases, my overall record is a dismal 1-3 but my net profit is a healthy 17 dimes. Conversely, let's say I lose the 50 Dime play and go 3-0 with the 10 Dime releases. My overall record is an impressive 3-1, but my net profit is a negative -25 dimes.

 

Which would you prefer, the losing record and winning day, or the winning record or losing day?

 

Believe what you want, but I'm telling you the truth: Winning percentage means nothing in this business as the above illustration will prove time and time again. Of course, crafty salesmen masquerading as handicappers can spin gold using the second scenario, but I feel it's my job to educate you about what is the TRUTH in this business - whether you become my customer or not.

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(Any "Guarantee" applying to Guaranteed Plays and Resulting

Free Service is NOT included)


Steve Budin, Mathew Parker, Matt Rivers,

Dom Chambers (NHL) and Gabe DuPont (NHL) 

do NOT release plays everyday


Trace Adams' Pay After You Win Plays

(which are NEVER Best Bets) are not included


Upgrade From One Package To Another at Anytime

Instant Rebates Available Upon Upgrades!

Help Charity Play of the Week Discount Picks
Featured Videos
Al DeMarco GM Video Anthony Redd Videos Trace Adams Video
Time Teams Score Stat Open Westgate 5 Dimes Pinnacle CRIS Carib
Sunday, June 24th - NATIONAL LEAGUE
1:10 PM
951 CUB
952 CIN
6
8
FINAL
FINAL
-160
9o20
-135
-136
-129
9½o07
-131
-150
9½o15
1:10 PM
953 LOS
954 NYM
8
7
FINAL
FINAL
-175
8
-166
8½o15
-165
8½o20
-164
8½o15
-170
8½o20
-190
8½o20
1:35 PM
955 ARI
956 PIT
3
0
FINAL
FINAL

-110

-120

-118
8½u06
-120
8½o15
-115
8½o15
-120
8:05 PM
957 PHI
958 WAS
6
8
BOT
8th
+105
-125
9o15
-115
9o15
-120
9o10
-120
9o17
-122
9o15
-125
2:10 PM
959 STL
960 MIL
8
2
FINAL
FINAL
9u19
-135

-124
8½u15
-124
8½u09
-123

-121

-130
4:40 PM
961 MIA
962 COL
8
5
FINAL
FINAL
11½
-175
10½o15
-165
10½o15
-170
10½o16
-170
11u25
-174
11u20
-175
4:05 PM
963 SDG
964 SFO
2
3
FINAL
FINAL
8½u20
-150
8o15
-150
8o15
-149
8o13
-148
8o13
-152
8o15
-150
Sunday, June 24th - AMERICAN LEAGUE
1:05 PM
965 SEA
966 BOS
0
5
FINAL
FINAL
+190
-230

-250

-240
8o31
-243
8½o14
-250

-285
1:10 PM
967 DET
968 CLE
2
12
FINAL
FINAL

-160

-160

-161
9½u10
-160

-162
9½o15
-165
1:10 PM
969 NYY
970 TAM
6
7
FINAL
FINAL

-170
7½o15
-170
-168
8u27
-170
7½u15
-190
2:10 PM
971 KAN
972 HOU
3
11
FINAL
FINAL
8
-340
7½o15
-370

-360
7½u08
-361
7½o13
-370

-375
2:10 PM
973 OAK
974 CWS
3
10
FINAL
FINAL
9o20
-110
9o20
-117
9o20
-116
9o14
-115
9½u20
-119
9o20
-115
2:10 PM
975 TEX
976 MIN
0
2
FINAL
FINAL
+155
-180
9o20
-167
9o15
-165
9o07
-164
9o17
-172
9o15
-175
4:05 PM
977 TOR
978 LAA
7
6
FINAL
FINAL
9
-140
8½o20
-143
9u25
-138
8½o20
-139
9u27
-142
8½o25
-140
Sunday, June 24th - INTERLEAGUE
1:35 PM
979 BAL
980 ATL
3
7
FINAL
FINAL
9o20
-160
9½u20
-190
9½u25
-183
9½u20
-179
9½u15
-185
9½u15
-205
Monday, June 25th - NATIONAL LEAGUE
7:10 PM
901 PIT
902 NYM
    -120
7½u15
-105
-107
7½u15
-107
7½u12
-106
7½u15
7½u20
-110
7:10 PM
903 ARI
904 MIA
    -125
-125
8½u20
-125
-124
8½u05
-126
-125
8½o15
7:35 PM
905 CIN
906 ATL
    8½u19
-150
8½o15
-148
8½o15
-150
8½o12
-149

-146
8½o15
-150
10:10 PM
907 CUB
908 LOS
               
Monday, June 25th - AMERICAN LEAGUE
3:10 PM
909 OAK
910 DET
    -105
-115
9½u15
-115
9½u20
-116
9½u12
-117
9½u17
-114
9½u20
-115
7:05 PM
911 SEA
912 BAL
    -150
-135
-135
-135
9½u05
-135
-135
8:10 PM
913 TOR
914 HOU
    7½u20
-240
7
-240
7o20
-235
7½u30
-231
7o19
-240
7½u30
-240
Monday, June 25th - INTERLEAGUE
7:05 PM
915 NYY
916 PHI
    -145
9
-135
9u25
-134
9u25
-133
9u21
-134
9u25
-135
9u25
7:10 PM
917 WAS
918 TAM
    7½u20
-120
7½u25
-110
7½u25
-111
7½u24
-110
7½u25
-112
7½u25
-115
8:05 PM
919 SDG
920 TEX
   
-170
9½u20
-147
9½u15
-146
9½u11
-143
9½u17
-150
9½u15
-155
8:15 PM
921 CLE
922 STL
    -135
-125
-123
-121
8½u05
-123
-125
Monday, June 25th - WRITE-IN GAME
4:15 PM
923 LAA
924 KAN
    -160
9u20
-162
8½o25
-163
9u20
-162
9u15
-164
9u20
-165
9u20
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