This play should NOT surprise you if you’ve been following me for the last 10 days. I told you a week ago today when I backed USC as a two-point home favorite against Washington that I figured the Huskies out. You go against them when they’re on the road (now 0-6 SU and ATS) and you back them at home (13-1 SU).
In their last three home games, the Huskies have crushed Pac-10 foes Stanford (94-61) and Cal (84-69), easily covering in both games, and then they stepped out of conference on Tuesday and whipped Seattle 123-76. (Seattle’s no slouch, either, as the Redhawks scored road wins at Utah and at Oregon State, plus a home win over Fresno State).
At home, Washington State averages 86.9 points, shoots 45.2 percent from the field and has an average rebounding edge of 8.4 boards per game (37.8-29.4). By comparison, in their four Pac-10 road losses, Washington has scored 61, 61, 70 and 51 points (60.8 ppg); shot 76-for-215 from the field, good for 35.3 percent; and has a minus-25 rebounding differential! Digest those stark contrasts – I can’t remember the last time I saw home-road splits like that in college basketball!
Not only that, but look at Washington State’s statistics on the road: The Cougars manage just 65.2 ppg and give up 73.5 ppg, and they get outshot by an eye-popping 47.4 percent to 41.5 percent margin, including 38.8 percent to 32.9 percent from 3-point land!
Now, obviously, this is a rivalry game and that element has to be factored into this game. But really, there’s no comparing the talent level of Washington and Washington State. The Huskies were picked my pretty much everyone to challenge Cal for the Pac-10 title, while the Cougars were pegged for the middle of the pack (at best). And while Washington has had its struggles this year (on the road, of course), the Cougars are just 4-4 SU and 2-6 ATS in league play; in fact, they’ve failed to cover in seven of their last nine games.
If you take away a 65-60 home win over Oregon State (and Oregon State is easily the worst team in the league) and a 67-60 win at USC (the Trojans have no offensive firepower), here are the point totals Washington State has surrendered in its other Pac-10 games: 91, 76, 71, 93, 70 and 74. You can’t play that kind of defense and expect to hang with a Washington squad that lights up the scoreboard at home.
Last year, the Huskies swept the season series from Wazu, winning 68-48 on the road and 67-60 at home, and the talent gap between these rivals was much narrower than it is this year. Lay the chalk and watch Washington roll by at least 15 points!
The Big 12 conference has the biggest home/road dichotomy of any league in the country, and these two teams playing in Stillwater today fall right in line with that discrepancy. Both teams are 11-1 on their home courts, with Oklahoma State’s lone home defeat coming at the hands of Texas (72-60 back on Feb. 1, the Cowboys’ most recent home game). Sandwiched around that loss to Texas were a pair of road defeats at Missouri and Texas Tech, meaning the Cowboys come into this game in an 0-3 SU and ATS slump.
However, if you eliminate the Texas loss – by the way, Oklahoma State was a 2½-point underdog in that game, so it wasn’t a “bad” loss or anything – the Cowboys have won their other 11 games at Gallagher Iba Arena by nearly 20 points per game (79.6-60). That includes a trio of comfortable Big 12 home wins and covers over Texas Tech (81-52), Colorado (90-78) and Texas A&M (76-69). Go back to last season and Oklahoma State is an impressive 16-1 SU and 8-2-1 ATS in lined games on its home floor, including 8-1 in Big 12 home games (7-2 ATS).
The last team other than Texas to win in Stillwater? Indeed, it was Oklahoma last Jan. 26 (an 89-81 victory). But remember: The Sooners, with Blake Griffin leading the way, were a Top 10 squad last year (one that made it to the Elite Eight of the NCAAs). This year, Oklahoma is just 13-10 overall, including 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS away from Norman (1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in true road games). The Sooners have hit the highway four times in Big 12 play and were competitive only once (65-62 loss at Texas A&M as a 7½-point underdog). Aside from that, Oklahoma has lost at Baylor 91-60, at Texas Tech 75-65 and at Nebraska 63-46. Throw in a 14-point loss at Gonzaga, and it’s clear that OU is a terrible traveler.
To further hammer home the home-road angle, consider that Oklahoma State allows just 62.8 ppg at home (including the Texas loss) and holds opponents to 40.4 percent shooting. The Sooners give up 76 ppg on the road and allow 46.7 percent shooting (39 percent from three-point land). And the Cowboys average 37 rebounds per contest at home; the Sooners average 30.3.
Finally, get a load of some of these pointspread trends: Oklahoma, in addition to failing to cash in four of its last five games overall, is 15-34-3 ATS in its last 52 road games and a lengthy 23-49-3 ATS in its last 75 road games against teams that have a winning home record. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are on ATS runs of 20-8-1 overall, 20-6-2 at home, 13-6 in conference, 17-8-1 against opponents with a winning overall record and a perfect 8-0 when playing at home against opponents that have a losing road mark.
Throw in the fact this is a double-revenge situation for Oklahoma State – which not only is seeking payback for last year’s home loss to the Sooners but also for letting one get away at Oklahoma a month ago when they lost 62-57 in overtime, shooting a miserable 27.5 percent for the game – and everything about this matchup screams Cowboys. (And because OSU is coming off three straight losses and non-covers, we’re getting value in the line, too!)