96-73-3 Past 14 Months

+236.75 Dimes

35-22-2 NFL Roll

+259 Dimes

Two Thursdays Ago

5 Dime Play

49ers - Winner

Two Mondays Ago

5 Dime Play

Steelers - Winner

ABOUT TCU LAST SATURDAY

This is what I told you...

In the old days - and I'm talking 15 to 20 years ago - there were teams you used to count on to run up the score: Oklahoma and Nebraska of the Switzer and Osborne era's are two that come immediately to mind. But nowadays, you've got to pick your spots when backing overwhelming favorites. One key factor to consider - especially late in the season - is a team's standing in the BCS polls, its remaining schedule, and how important it is for said team to score a double-digit rout to impress the pollsters, media and general public. Otherwise, out-of-site equals out-of-mind and that results in the inevitable drop in the polls.

Case in point was my decision to back Georgia Tech in a non-conference visit to Miss State two Saturdays ago. Same goes today with TCU laying the big number at home against Utah. The Horned Frogs are ranked No. 4 in this week's poll and keep in mind that two of the top three teams - Florida and Alabama - are probably going to square off in the SEC title game with one of them obviously dropping after they lose. And should Texas, the other member of the Top 4, stumble down the homestretch, little ole TCU from the oft-overlooked Mountain West Conference could sneak further up the ladder.

Added motivation on the field for TCU is the fact that this is a huge revenge game. The Horned Frogs were up 10-0 at Utah in the second half last year; I know because I had them. But they missed two field goals and the Utes scored on a 9-yard TD pass with :48 seconds remaining to pull out the amazing 14-10 win and cover.

The Horned Frogs haven't lost since that game, reeling off 12 consecutive straight-up wins. More importantly, this season they've had three "step-up" games - all on the road - and delivered the cash in each, beating up Virginia in their season opener 30-14 as a 13-point chalk, upsetting Clemson two weeks later 14-10 as a two-point dog, and rolling over BYU four Saturdays ago 38-7 as a 2 1/2-point favorite. Conversely, Utah's lone "step-up" game was a non-conference visit to Oregon where it lost to the Ducks 31-24 in the season's third week, and that was before Oregon really hit its stride this year.

TCU enters on an 18-5 ATS run as a home favorite, and it's won its last four games by a combined 178-25 score. But what really impressed me was the fact the Frogs did not get caught looking ahead to this game when they visited San Diego State last Saturday and rolled 55-12. That was an Aztecs' squad that had won two straight and three of its previous four games.

Utah has recovered nicely from its lone loss at Oregon by reeling off six straight wins, but the Utes switched quarterbacks two games ago to boost their offense, turning to true freshman Jordan Wynn, who completed 18-of-28 passes for 297 yards and 2 TDs in three quarters of work against New Mexico last Saturday in his first start.

Two troubling aspects of that game for Utah backers: The Utes won 45-14, but they were up only 17-7 at halftime. And while that game was at home against the winless Lobos; today's marks Wynn's first road start and comes versus the nation's No. 1 ranked defense.

Note: TCU outgained Utah 546 to 284 in total yards, holding the Utes to

With such a stout stop unit, TCU's offense is often overlooked, but quarterback Andy Dalton has enjoyed a tremendous season with 64% completions and a per game average of 209 yards passing with 16 TDs versus just 3 INTs. Plus, he's rushed for 341 yards.

Note: Dalton completed 17-of-29 passes for 200 yards and 1 TD and gained another 43 yards on the ground on seven carries.

TCU has passed every test it's taken this season with none more impressive than its road rout of BYU. With it's No. 4 ranking in the BCS poll plus payback for last year's devastating loss at stake, the Toads don't let up on the accelerator today in a wire-to-wire rout as they roll 44-17.

Final Score: TCU won 55-28

ABOUT TEMPLE LAST FRIDAY

This is what I told you...

I'm not a bit concerned about what happened to the Owls last Thursday at home against Miami of Ohio, a game in which they needed a last-minute field goal to pull out a 34-32 win. Keep in mind just five days earlier Temple had pulled off a stunning road upset of Navy as a seven-point underdog. And against Miami-O, the Owls had jumped out to a big 31-13 fourth-quarter lead before relaxing. That is a lesson learned that will serve this team will heading into not only tonight's game, but the rest of the season, which will most likely include its first Bowl appearance since 1979.

Temple, winners of 7 in a row, has thrived this season thanks to a stiff defense that's been superb against the run, and an offense carried by freshman back Bernard Pierce, who has rushed for 1211 yards. Pierce may be small in stature, but he's good for 30-40 carries per game and he's generally needed for every one of them because Temple's passing game has been lacking all season. But coach Al Golden finally tired of inconsistent and generally ineffective Vaughn Charlton last week, replacing him with Chester Stewart against Miami of Ohio. Stewart came off the bench to complete 6-of-11 passes for 143 yards and his effort earned him the start for tonight's contest as Temple puts its 5-0 MAC record on the line.

Note: Stewart threw for 145 yards and 2 TD passes in addition to running for two more scores.

Akron upset arch-rival Kent State, 28-20, as a four-point home dog last week,  snapping the Golden Flashes' three-game winning streak in the process. The Zips, however, had lost their previous six games (1-5 ATS), five by double-digit margins. In fact, they had dropped 10 consecutive games versus Division-1 A competition before upsetting Kent.

Note: The Owls gained 258 of their 403 total yards in the 56-17 win as they scored 49 unanswered points to close the game.

The key in this contest will be Akron's inability to stop the run as the Zips allow 166 yards rushing a game (4.2 ypc). And on offense, they had success running the ball against Kent State last week (168 yards), but that was more an anomaly rather than the norm this season, and I don't expect them to have similar success against the toughest run defense in the MAC as Temple's big defensive front will bottle up their ground game.

Two Sundays Ago

15 Dime Play

Eagles - Loser

Now 16-5-1 with 15 Dimers past two seasons

Three Saturdays Ago

25 Dime Play

Penn State - Loser

Who cares that I'm now 3-1 the past two years with

25 dime college releases.

That play sucked.

Three Mondays Ago

15 Dime Play

Saints - Loser

FYI....

I had them at -12 so it was a loser as far as I was concerned even if they didn't give up the field goal at the end.

And what if the game had resulted in an 11-point New Orleans' win? Sorry, it was still a loser because no handicapper in his right mind should be telling you to buy a 1/2 point when laying 11 1/2 or 11. That's just ridiculous - yet you and I both know there are clowns out there that do it.

Now 6-1 past two years with 15 dime or higher

plays on Monday nights

7TH STRAIGHT WINNING

NFL & COLLEGE FOOTBALL CAMPAIGN

2008-09 NFL Tale of the Tape

26-13-2

+220 Dimes Net Profit

13-4-1 Final Nine Weeks of the Season

      30 Dime Releases:      2-0               15 Dime Releases:      11-1-1

      25 Dime Releases:      2-2-1            10 Dime Releases:       8-7

      20 Dime Releases:      1-0               5 Dime Releases:        2-3

8-6 ON MONDAY NIGHTS (2008-09)

(8-5 Sides)

Net Profit for the Season: +55 Dimes

4-0 with 15 Dime or Higher Releases

SUPER BOWL RECORD

12-3-2 last 17

6-1 last 7

Over the 25 years I've been doing this, one of the biggest misconceptions I've encountered from customers is their belief that winning percentage actually matters in this business. Bottom line is that a straight-up winning percentage means absolutely nothing when your handicapper - such as myself - releases rated selections. Read further and you'll understand why.

I use the "dime" rating system, going in 5 dime increments, generally keeping those plays between 5 and 100 dimes. Yes, that's a wide range, but truth be told, I usually max out around 50 dimes, rarely venturing into the rarefied air above 50 dimes unless I've built a substantial bankroll. Doing anything different would be irresponsible bankroll management on my part and a total disservice toward you, my clients.

I like to keep it simple from a money-management system so my customers can always know exactly how they should be allocating their bankroll in proportion to the rating I assign to a selection.

Obviously, a 50 Dime play is five times stronger than a 10 Dime release and twice as strong as a 25 Dime pick.

And each day when you see my compiling or mentioning my NET profit figures, keep in mind I've computing them based on the following formula:

Net Profit = Wins - Losses - Vig

Of course let's not forget my golden rule of gambling: Never bet more than you can afford to lose. No rating system - including mine - is effective unless you pay attention to that rule. By heeding my advice you can never fall into a financial abyss from which there is no escape.

A question gamblers always pose is "How much should I be playing?" Obviously, there is no set, firm answer, but my advice would be to follow my money management system and base the size of your wagers on a percentage of your total bankroll.

Let me explain further...

Take your total bankroll - the amount you can afford to lose in an absolute worst case scenario on a single day. Let's say it's $400 on a college football Saturday. And on that Saturday I release a 50 Dime play and two 20 Dime picks.

Let's do some quick math...I've got a total of 90 dimes of action on the table (one 50 dime play and two 20 dimers).  You've got a maximum one-day bankroll of $400. Simply divide the $400 by the 90 dimes and you've got a per dime wager of $4.44.

Now it's time for some simple multiplication. If a dime is worth $4.44, my 50 Dime rated release equals approximately a $222 wager on your part. And my two 20 Dime rates picks equal approximately $88.88 wagers each. Add everything back up and you've got your initial $400 bankroll all over again.

This obviously all applies to a single wagering day. It's up to you to figure out how to allocate your bankroll over the course of a week or month.

Now, back to how inconsequential winning percentages can be: Let's say I have a 50 Dime play and three 10 Dime releases on an NFL Sunday. If I win the 50 Dime play and go 0-3 with the 10 Dime releases, my overall record is a dismal 1-3 but my net profit is a healthy 17 dimes. Conversely, let's say I lose the 50 Dime play and go 3-0 with the 10 Dime releases. My overall record is an impressive 3-1, but my net profit is a negative -25 dimes.

Which would you prefer, the losing record and winning day, or the winning record or losing day?

Believe what you want, but I'm telling you the truth: Winning percentage means nothing in this business as the above illustration will prove time and time again. Of course, crafty salesmen masquerading as handicappers can spin gold using the second scenario, but I feel it's my job to educate you about what is the TRUTH in this business - whether you become my customer or not.

Been there, done that, seen it all.

That pretty much sums up my 25+ years in this business!

25 years in a business that most guys are lucky to make it 25 months.

The secret to my success? To be honest, there is no one "secret," no magic elixir, but rather a commitment to winning which means a commitment to working 365 days a year.

Being a handicapper is not a part-time job. Now, those of you reading this, the gamblers of this world, I understand that you are not professional gamblers and obviously you do this on recreational basis and cannot devote your life to wagering. But that's what I'm here for; that's what you pay me for.

There are two types of handicappers in this business: The first are great salesmen who excel at separating you from the money in your wallet and could care less about picking winners. The second are guys who know how to make clients money by winning consistently over the long haul through effective money-management techniques and an intuitive sense of knowing when to press and go for the jugular with big plays - especially when your playing with your bookmaker's money.

Listen, in my 25 years in this business I've seen more scam artists and con men than you can believe. A few of these relics - the dinosaurs from the 800 phone room age - are still around trying to make a buck online. You know the type; they tell you something is "absolutely free" with the same conviction that makes you look twice when they claim the sky is blue.

Rest assured, what you see here at my site is what you get. My plays are ONLY available online. And these are the ONLY plays I've got each day. There is no "better" package available at a higher cost like so many other guys offer at their sites or by phone. What you see is what you get; end of story.

No one - and I mean NO ONE - wins every day in this business, and anyone who claims to is a LIAR. As I always tell my clients, I will go on streaks, both good and bad, just like the players and teams I analyze daily. But the key for me - and my customers - is that I expect to turn a net profit for them over the long term. And making money over the course of season or a year, etc., is what matters most.

A little bit more about me....

• I'm currently the General Manager and Director of Operations for the industry's largest group of pay-per-view sports information websites
  
  
• I'm the featured handicapping analyst on Sportsnet New York television (SNY.tv), appearing weekly on Daily News Live
  
  
• I am a featured contributor at FoxSports.com and MSNBC.com
  
  
• I created, hosted and syndicated the national sports talk show "The Friday Night Quarterback" in the early '90's.
  
  
• I created and published the weekly football newsletter "The Players Preference Playbook" in the '90's.
  
  
• I was Managing Editor and News Director for a national sports news wire service in the late '80's.

Nice resume - and there's a lot more - but the past doesn't count in this business and that's why I laugh when I hear or read about a handicapper bragging about some contest they won 13 years ago. Who cares?  

Enough about me because all that really matters is whether I can make you a winner. Check out my page. Watch me on TV. Listen to me on the radio. Decide for yourself. I'm not here to sell you anything; I'm here to make you money and no one is putting a gun to your head. The decision to let me help you is yours and yours alone.