Golden Nugget CEO's Top Vegas Pick VIP Weekend Giveaway
IMPORTANT: This is not a gaming site. Terms and Conditions Privacy Policy

 


Al DeMarco's Wagering World
 
Friday, May 28
 
Available weekdays by 2:00 P.M. Eastern
Weekends by 11:00 A.M. Eastern
                                           

                             

You Can Take Those Suns to the Bank:

 

OK, so the Phoenix Suns fell just short with their rally from 18 points down Thursday night. But really, if you were a Phoenix bettor, did you want them to force overtime?

 

In a word: No. When the Suns tied it at 101 on a straightaway, bank-shot 3-pointer from Jason Richardson with 3.5 seconds left, the rooting interest should immediately be for the Lakers to end it on a last-second bucket. Which is exactly what they did, with Ron Artest rebounding a Kobe Bryant miss and banking it in at the buzzer for a 103-101 Los Angeles victory.

 

The Lakers were a healthy 7.5-point home chalk, so the Suns got the win at the betting window. If the game goes to overtime, you never know what could happen. A little surge by the Lakers, then perhaps the Suns start fouling to stop the clock, and L.A. could easily end up winning by 8 points or more. So Phoenix backers, count your blessings that Artest hit that buzzer-beater.

 

BTW, last night’s game marked the first time in this series that the home team and the straight-up (SU) winner didn’t get it done against the spread (ATS). It was also the first time in the Suns’ last 24 games --- including all 15 playoff tilts --- that the SU winner failed to cash, and just the second time in the last 17 Phoenix-L.A. clashes that the outright victor came up short in Vegas.

 

NBA Playoffs Recap:

 

Last night’s result notwithstanding, SU winners are still swimsuit-model hot in the 2010 playoffs, with a 66-6-1 ATS record, for a steaming spread-covering clip of 91.7 percent.

 

In fact, Kobe Bryant and Co.’s failure to cash marked the first time since May 2 that the SU winner didn’t bag the funds --- and coincidentally enough, it was the Lakers in that case, as well. In the second-round opener against Utah, Los Angeles won 104-99 but came up short as a 7-point home chalk.

 

From that point forward, SU winners went on a 25-0 spread-covering spree, and over the last 59 playoff contests, the outright victors are 55-3-1 ATS, grabbing the cash 94.8 percent of the time. So even with the Lakers’ effort last night, if you feel you’ve got a good read on who the SU winner will be in NBA postseason play, then pull the trigger on that team.

 

Through 73 postseason affairs this year, favorites are 50-23 SU and 43-29-1 ATS, cashing at a 59.7 percent rate, and home teams are now 49-24 SU and 42-30-1 in Vegas (58.3 percent).

 

The Lakers and Suns finally went under the total for once, too, the first time that’s happened in the Western Conference finals. Still, the over holds a slight edge in the playoffs at 37-34-2.

 

NBA Playoffs Fast Break:

 

We’re getting betting jet-lag here, bouncing from one coast to the other each day. Today, it’s back to the East finals, with Boston desperate to put away Orlando in Beantown and avoid a Game 7 roady. Time to check the numbers:

 

·         The Magic sport positive ATS streaks of 22-8-1 overall, 7-1 in roadies, 7-1 after a spread-cover, 21-7-1 after a SU win and 20-7-1 after a day off. They are also 5-1 SU and ATS on the highway in this year’s playoffs.

 

·         The Celtics have dropped two in a row SU and ATS, but remain on ATS runs of 6-2 overall, 4-1 after either a SU or an ATS loss, 6-2 at home and 6-2 after a day off.

 

·         The road team and the visitor are on an 8-2 ATS run in the last 10 Orlando-Boston clashes, and the Magic are 4-1 ATS on their last five trips to TD Garden.

 

·         The SU winner is on ATS tears of 21-2 in this rivalry (6-0 last six), 26-0 for the Celtics and 20-1 for the Magic.

 

Diamond Gems:

 

We’ll wrap up the work week with some numbers from the ballyards:

                                               

·         Braves hurler Derek Lowe is 8-0 with a 2.96 ERA in eight career starts against the Pirates, heading into today’s tilt in Atlanta.

 

·         Mets ace Johan Santana, visiting the Brewers, is 1-0 with a 1.25 ERA in his last three starts, allowing just four runs in 21.2 innings, though New York lost two of those games.

 

·         Colorado starter Jeff Francis, making his third start after missing all of 2009, is 1-0 with a 0.68 ERA in his first two outings this year. The Rockies have also won five in a row overall, with the Dodgers in Denver today.

 

·         Los Angeles is 19-7 in its last 26 games against Colorado, going 5-1 in its last six in the Mile High City.

 

·         San Diego’s Clayton Richard, toeing the home slab against the Nationals, is 4-0 with a 1.97 ERA in his last five starts.

 

·         The Tigers’ Dontrelle Willis is 0-1 with a 7.07 ERA in his three starts this month, with visiting Oakland on deck.

 

·         The Rays’ starting pitchers lead the majors with a 2.91 ERA, and David Price (7-1, 2.41 ERA) has won his last four starts. The White Sox are at Tropicana today.

 

·         Minnesota, hosting Texas, is 19-7 in Kevin Slowey’s last 26 home starts and 8-2 in its last 10 series openers behind the righthander.

   

          

Al DeMarco, General Manager of this site and a 25-year veteran of the handicapping industry, is a featured contributor on FoxSports.com along with MSNBC.com. He’s also the featured handicapping expert on Comcast Sports TV in Chicago and a regular guest on the nation’s top sports talk radio stations throughout the football season.

 

 

 
Al DeMarco's Blog is published weekdays by 2:00 P.M. Eastern
Weekends by 10:00 A.M. Eastern

 

Click here to buy my picks.


3 Day Free Trial

Get every play from all

12 Pick Nation Experts

For One Low Price!

 

Save Over $350 Daily!

 

1 Day of Action HyperLink $79
7 Days of Action HyperLink $229
30 Days of Action HyperLink $729
Every Play - Every Sport
From All 12 Pick Nation Experts
 
NOTE:
 
Steve Budin does NOT release plays everyday
 
Trace Adams' pay after you win
pick (which is never his best bet)
is excluded
 
Nothing Further To Buy
Affiliate Program
Mobile Services
Video Vault