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Al DeMarco's Wagering World
 
Friday, May 28
 
Available weekdays by 2:00 P.M. Eastern
Weekends by 11:00 A.M. Eastern
                                           

                             

You Can Take Those Suns to the Bank:

 

OK, so the Phoenix Suns fell just short with their rally from 18 points down Thursday night. But really, if you were a Phoenix bettor, did you want them to force overtime?

 

In a word: No. When the Suns tied it at 101 on a straightaway, bank-shot 3-pointer from Jason Richardson with 3.5 seconds left, the rooting interest should immediately be for the Lakers to end it on a last-second bucket. Which is exactly what they did, with Ron Artest rebounding a Kobe Bryant miss and banking it in at the buzzer for a 103-101 Los Angeles victory.

 

The Lakers were a healthy 7.5-point home chalk, so the Suns got the win at the betting window. If the game goes to overtime, you never know what could happen. A little surge by the Lakers, then perhaps the Suns start fouling to stop the clock, and L.A. could easily end up winning by 8 points or more. So Phoenix backers, count your blessings that Artest hit that buzzer-beater.

 

BTW, last night’s game marked the first time in this series that the home team and the straight-up (SU) winner didn’t get it done against the spread (ATS). It was also the first time in the Suns’ last 24 games --- including all 15 playoff tilts --- that the SU winner failed to cash, and just the second time in the last 17 Phoenix-L.A. clashes that the outright victor came up short in Vegas.

 

NBA Playoffs Recap:

 

Last night’s result notwithstanding, SU winners are still swimsuit-model hot in the 2010 playoffs, with a 66-6-1 ATS record, for a steaming spread-covering clip of 91.7 percent.

 

In fact, Kobe Bryant and Co.’s failure to cash marked the first time since May 2 that the SU winner didn’t bag the funds --- and coincidentally enough, it was the Lakers in that case, as well. In the second-round opener against Utah, Los Angeles won 104-99 but came up short as a 7-point home chalk.

 

From that point forward, SU winners went on a 25-0 spread-covering spree, and over the last 59 playoff contests, the outright victors are 55-3-1 ATS, grabbing the cash 94.8 percent of the time. So even with the Lakers’ effort last night, if you feel you’ve got a good read on who the SU winner will be in NBA postseason play, then pull the trigger on that team.

 

Through 73 postseason affairs this year, favorites are 50-23 SU and 43-29-1 ATS, cashing at a 59.7 percent rate, and home teams are now 49-24 SU and 42-30-1 in Vegas (58.3 percent).

 

The Lakers and Suns finally went under the total for once, too, the first time that’s happened in the Western Conference finals. Still, the over holds a slight edge in the playoffs at 37-34-2.

 

NBA Playoffs Fast Break:

 

We’re getting betting jet-lag here, bouncing from one coast to the other each day. Today, it’s back to the East finals, with Boston desperate to put away Orlando in Beantown and avoid a Game 7 roady. Time to check the numbers:

 

·         The Magic sport positive ATS streaks of 22-8-1 overall, 7-1 in roadies, 7-1 after a spread-cover, 21-7-1 after a SU win and 20-7-1 after a day off. They are also 5-1 SU and ATS on the highway in this year’s playoffs.

 

·         The Celtics have dropped two in a row SU and ATS, but remain on ATS runs of 6-2 overall, 4-1 after either a SU or an ATS loss, 6-2 at home and 6-2 after a day off.

 

·         The road team and the visitor are on an 8-2 ATS run in the last 10 Orlando-Boston clashes, and the Magic are 4-1 ATS on their last five trips to TD Garden.

 

·         The SU winner is on ATS tears of 21-2 in this rivalry (6-0 last six), 26-0 for the Celtics and 20-1 for the Magic.

 

Diamond Gems:

 

We’ll wrap up the work week with some numbers from the ballyards:

                                               

·         Braves hurler Derek Lowe is 8-0 with a 2.96 ERA in eight career starts against the Pirates, heading into today’s tilt in Atlanta.

 

·         Mets ace Johan Santana, visiting the Brewers, is 1-0 with a 1.25 ERA in his last three starts, allowing just four runs in 21.2 innings, though New York lost two of those games.

 

·         Colorado starter Jeff Francis, making his third start after missing all of 2009, is 1-0 with a 0.68 ERA in his first two outings this year. The Rockies have also won five in a row overall, with the Dodgers in Denver today.

 

·         Los Angeles is 19-7 in its last 26 games against Colorado, going 5-1 in its last six in the Mile High City.

 

·         San Diego’s Clayton Richard, toeing the home slab against the Nationals, is 4-0 with a 1.97 ERA in his last five starts.

 

·         The Tigers’ Dontrelle Willis is 0-1 with a 7.07 ERA in his three starts this month, with visiting Oakland on deck.

 

·         The Rays’ starting pitchers lead the majors with a 2.91 ERA, and David Price (7-1, 2.41 ERA) has won his last four starts. The White Sox are at Tropicana today.

 

·         Minnesota, hosting Texas, is 19-7 in Kevin Slowey’s last 26 home starts and 8-2 in its last 10 series openers behind the righthander.

   

          

Al DeMarco, General Manager of this site and a 25-year veteran of the handicapping industry, is a featured contributor on FoxSports.com along with MSNBC.com. He’s also the featured handicapping expert on Comcast Sports TV in Chicago and a regular guest on the nation’s top sports talk radio stations throughout the football season.

 

 

 
Al DeMarco's Blog is published weekdays by 2:00 P.M. Eastern
Weekends by 10:00 A.M. Eastern

 

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