COLLEGE BASKETBALL
BIG EAST TOURNAMENT
(at New York)
Providence (12-18, 10-15-1 ATS) vs. Seton Hall (18-11, 8-15 ATS)
These teams closed the regular-season against each other on Saturday, with Providence falling 92-80 as a one-point home underdog. The Friars enter the conference tournament at Madison Square Garden on a 10-game losing skid (3-6-1 ATS), and they’ve lost 12 of their last 13 since starting Big East play 3-2 SU and ATS. Providence’s defense has been nonexistent, giving up more than 90 points in three of the last four games and seven of the last 13. Furthermore, the Friars surrendered more than 80 points in 13 of 18 conference contests.
With Seton Hall’s win at Providence on Saturday, the Pirates are now on a 6-2 run, and they’ve followed up a 1-6 ATS slump with consecutive spread-covers (both on the road). Seton Hall has scored 83, 85 and 92 points in its last three games, and has tallied at least 76 points six times during its current 6-2 streak.
Seton Hall has won three of the last four in this rivalry both SU and ATS, and the winning team has scored 88, 98 and 92 points in the last three clashes. The Pirates are 9-4 ATS in the last 13 head-to-head battles, the ‘dog has covered in seven of the last 10 and the SU winner has cashed in each of the last nine meetings.
Both teams are struggling at the betting window. Providence is in ATS slumps of 2-6-1 overall (all in the Big East and all against winning teams), 1-4 at neutral sites and 1-3-1 after a non-cover. The Pirates have failed to cover in 14 of 20 overall, 13 of 19 against Big East foes, 19 of 26 at neutral sites and eight of 10 after a SU victory. On the bright side, Seton Hall is 5-2 ATS both in its last seven Tuesday contests and its last seven versus losing teams.
The over is on runs of 4-1 for the Friars overall (all in the Big East), 5-1 for the Friars against winning teams, 4-1 for Seton Hall at neutral sites and 5-1 in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SETON HALL and OVER
Rutgers (15-16, 12-14 ATS) vs. Cincinnati (16-14, 7-18 ATS)
Rutgers has followed up a modest three-game winning streak (2-0 in Big East play) by dropping four of its last five, including Saturday’s ugly 83-54 loss at Pittsburgh, failing to cover as a 14½-point road underdog. The Scarlet Knights started Big East play with eight consecutive SU and ATS losses, then covered in seven of their next eight games (5-3 SU) and now have dropped two in a row SU and ATS.
After two narrow losses to eighth-ranked West Virginia (74-68 on the road) and ninth-ranked Villanova (77-73 at home), the Bearcats went to No. 19 Georgetown for Saturday’s regular-season finale and got boat-raced 74-47 as a seven-point road underdog. Cincinnati has lost seven of its last nine games and is 4-14 ATS since the Big East season kicked off.
One of the Bearcats’ four spread-covers in conference play came back on Jan. 2 at Rutgers, a 65-58 win as a five-point road favorite. Cincinnati 3-0 SU and ATS in the last three meetings after the Scarlet Knights went 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS in the first three clashes since the Big East expanded in 2005-06. The favorite has gotten the money in each of the last four meetings.
Rutgers has cashed in seven of 10 overall (all in conference) and five of six on Tuesday, but it is 1-5 ATS in its last six neutral-site games, 3-9 ATS in its last 12 after a SU victory, 8-20-1 ATS in its last 29 after a non-cover and 5-11 ATS in its last 16 against winning teams. Meanwhile, the Bearcats’ are in pointspread ruts of 7-22 overall (4-14 last 18), 6-20 in the Big East, 5-16 after a SU defeat, 4-13 after a non-cover, 1-4 against losing teams and 1-5 on Tuesday.
The over is 6-2 in Rutgers’ last eight games after a loss of more than 20 points and 4-0 in Cincy’s last four after a loss of more than 20 points, but the Bearcats are also on “under” stretches of 5-0 at neutral sites, 4-0 on Tuesday and 9-3 after a loss. Finally, this year’s meeting stayed under the total following a 3-0 “over” surge in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: RUTGERS
HORIZON LEAGUE TOURNAMENT
(at Indianapolis)
Wright State (20-11, 11-15-2 ATS) at (12) Butler (27-4, 12-19 ATS)
Wright State advanced to the Horizon League tournament championship game with Saturday’s 69-50 rout of Detroit as a 5½-point favorite at Hinkle Fieldhouse, which is Butler’s home court. The Raiders have alternated wins and losses in their last five games, but they’re 9-3 SU in their last 12 contests (all in the Horizon). On the downside, Wright State is just 4-10-2 ATS in its last 16 outings, and it has posted consecutive spread-covers just once since starting the season 4-0 ATS.
Butler, shooting for its third consecutive Horizon League championship, has a 19-game winning streak on the line today, and it also sports a 19-0 record in conference. On Saturday, the Bulldogs hosted Wisconsin-Milwaukee in semifinal action and pulled away late for a 68-59 victory, falling short as a 14½-point favorite. Butler has turned up the heat defensively, holding six of its last seven opponents and 10 of the last 13 under 60 points.
The Bulldogs swept the season series from the Raiders, winning 77-65 as a 1½-point road underdog and 74-62 as an eight-point home chalk. Since losing three straight to Wright State – including the 2007 conference tournament championship game – Butler has won six in a row in this rivalry, going 4-1 ATS. The home team has won eight of the last 10 meetings, the underdog is 6-3 ATS in the last nine and the SU winner is 9-2 ATS in the last 11.
Wright State has cashed in seven of eight on Tuesday, but from there the pointspread trends turn negative, including 1-11-1 on the road, 4-10-2 in conference, 1-4-1 after a SU win, 1-5 following a spread-cover, 3-8-2 against teams with a winning record and 2-10 against opponents with a winning percentage above .600. Butler is on ATS slides of 2-5 overall, 2-6 at home, 0-4 on Tuesday and 2-5 after a SU win.
The under is on runs of 8-2-1 for the Raiders on Tuesday, 4-0 for Butler overall and 5-1 for Butler in Horizon action. However, the over is 4-0 in Wright State’s last four against winning teams, 4-0 in Butler’s last four against winning teams, 6-2 in Butler’s last eight on Tuesday and 4-0 in the last four battles between these schools.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BUTLER and OVER
NBA
Boston (40-21, 24-36-1 ATS) at Milwaukee (33-29, 41-21 ATS)
Two squads going in the right direction clash at the Bradley Center, where the Celtics put a four-game winning streak on the line against the surging Bucks, who have won three in a row and nine of their last 10.
Boston needed a furious fourth-quarter rally to knock off the lowly Wizards 86-83 on Sunday, never threatening to cover as a 12-point home favorite to halt a three-game ATS surge. The Celtics have won four in a row and 11 of their last 16, but their 3-1 ATS uptick comes on the heels of an 11-25 ATS funk.
The Bucks started last week with a home-and-home sweep of the Wizards (100-87 victory as a 10-point home favorite; 102-74 as a four-point road chalk). Then they caught a break against Cleveland on Saturday, as LeBron James sat out with an injury and Milwaukee took advantage with a 92-85 victory over the Cavaliers as a 3½-point home favorite. The Bucks have cashed in 10 straight games (9-1 ATS) – going 4-0 SU and ATS at home – and they now have the best pointspread mark in the NBA.
Boston took out Milwaukee 98-89 in the only previous meeting this season, but the Bucks cashed as a 12½-point road underdog, their fourth straight spread-cover in this rivalry (all as an underdog). The Celtics are 7-1 SU in the last eight series clashes, but Milwaukee is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 (4-1 ATS at the Bradley Center).
The Celtics have cashed in four of their last five on the highway, but they’re otherwise in ATS ruts of 7-16-1 overall, 3-7 against Eastern Conference foes, 1-4 versus the Central Division, 3-8-1 against winning teams, 5-15-1 after one day off, 3-11-1 following a non-cover and 1-4 on Tuesday. Conversely, Milwaukee is on positive ATS runs of 44-21-1 going back to the end of last year, 4-0 at home, 22-6 in Eastern Conference games, 13-3 when facing the Atlantic Division, 4-1 when playing on two days of rest and 22-8 after a spread-cover.
Boston is on “under” runs of 6-2 on the road, 5-2 against the Central Division and 7-2 after a SU victory, while the Bucks sport “under” trends of 4-1 overall, 7-2 at home, 20-6 within the Eastern Conference, 10-4 after a SU win, 4-1 versus the Atlantic Division and 5-1 on Tuesday. Finally, the last two meetings between these squads have stayed below the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MILWAUKEE and UNDER